OSU's Pac-12 Tournament chances

I started looking ahead to the Pac-12 Tournament as soon as Oregon State started conference play 0-3, essentially ending any chance it had of snagging an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

It was at that point that the Pac-12 Tournament became more important than the rest of the regular season.

Well, the Pac-12 Tournament begins next Wednesday.

Can the Beavers win the thing? Heck no.

But can they make a run similar to last year, when they came up one half short of the championship game? Potentially, depending on their draw.

I think the draw is pretty important for OSU this year, considering the Beavers simply aren’t good enough to make a run if they don’t get the benefit of a good draw.

With two games left in the regular season (one game for some teams), here are the current Pac-12 standings:
1. Oregon    12-4 (Pac-12 record)
2. UCLA    12-4
3. California    12-5
4. Arizona    11-6
5. Colorado    9-7
6. USC        9-7
7. ASU        9-8
8. Wash.    8-8
9. Stanford    8-9
10. OSU    3-13
11. Utah    3-13
12. WSU    2-14
If you’re not familiar with the tournament format, the first round matchups are: (12) vs. (5), (11) vs. (6), (10) vs. (7), (9) vs. (8). In the quarterfinals, it’s (12/5) vs. (4), (11/6) vs. (3), (10/7) vs. (2) and (9/8) vs. (1).

At this point, OSU can finish 10th, 11th or 12th. But in my opinion, it’s less about what seed they get and more about whom they play.

Here are three scenarios for Pac-12 Tournament matchups: the “most likely,” the worst and the best.

The “most likely” scenario:
The Pac-12 has been impossible to predict this season, but if there are no upsets this weekend (based on the current conference standings, not point spreads), this would be OSU’s draw:
OSU’s first round opponent: (7) Stanford
OSU’s second round opponent: (2) UCLA
OSU’s potential semifinal opponent: (1) Oregon
What this would mean for OSU:
Not good. The Beavers have lost their last four meetings with Stanford dating back to last season, and even if OSU did squeeze out an opening-round win, UCLA would be waiting in the wings. The Bruins have won four in a row and, when they’re playing together, they’re the scariest team in the conference. I think the freshmen will rally behind senior point guard Larry Drew II in a win-or-go-home game, making them a team I’d want no part of. Especially considering OSU showed no signs of being able to hang with the Bruins in a 74-64 (the score was closer than the game was) loss on Jan. 17.

The worst-case scenario:
OSU’s first round opponent: (5) Colorado
OSU’s second round opponent: (4) Arizona
OSU’s potential semifinal opponent: (1) UCLA or (1) Oregon
Keys to this happening:
• OSU finishes 12th (loses to Utah and Colorado, WSU beats either USC or UCLA)
• USC doesn’t win more games than Colorado this week (making Colorado the five-seed)
What this would mean for OSU:
Not good. Not good at all. Last year, Colorado ran the table at the Pac-12 Tournament and earned an unlikely bid to the NCAA Tournament. So that’s a tournament-tested team. Experience aside, I think Colorado is by far the best team that will play on the first day of the tournament. It would take OSU’s best effort to beat Colorado, and if that did happen, there’s no way OSU would have enough left in the tank to hang with a fresh Arizona team. (And don’t point to OSU beating a fresh Washington team last year, because Arizona is much, much better this year than Washington was last year.)
Best-case scenario:
OSU’s first round opponent: (7) Washington
OSU’s second round opponent: (2) Cal
OSU’s potential semifinal opponent: (3) Oregon
Keys to this happening:
• UCLA wins out (beats WSU, UW)
• Cal beats Stanford
• Colorado beats Oregon
• OSU beats Utah
What this would mean for OSU:
Call me crazy, but if OSU has any chance — and I’m talking a 5, 6 percent chance — of reaching the Pac-12 title game, this will be the route. The Huskies are the only decent team OSU has defeated this year, so that obviously makes them much more ideal than Colorado or Stanford. After that, the Beavers would face a Cal team that has won seven straight but is definitely not the second-best team in the conference. If you watched the Golden Bears play in Gill Coliseum a week-and-a-half ago, you’d agree with me — they’re really not that good, and I don’t think it’d take a miracle for OSU to beat them. If Allen Crabbe and/or Justin Cobbs are off, Cal is capable of losing to any team in the conference. Looking past the quarterfinals, OSU wouldn’t have to face Arizona or UCLA — the only two teams I think OSU has no chance against — until the finals. A potential semifinal matchup with Oregon is enticing, because the Beavers have proven they can hang with the Ducks twice this season, and I imagine beating your rival three times in one season is no easy task.

Grady Garrett, sports reporter
On Twitter @gradygarrett
sports@dailybarometer.com